AI 泡沫监测·之一:债务层已经先动了
判断 AI 泡沫别盯股价,盯债:CoreWeave 债券 76 美分,甲骨文 CDS 创历史新高,私募信贷在挤兑——债务层已经先动了。四张考卷已出,10 月 27 日财报周交卷,对账见。
持续追踪国内外重要财经与资本事件。
判断 AI 泡沫别盯股价,盯债:CoreWeave 债券 76 美分,甲骨文 CDS 创历史新高,私募信贷在挤兑——债务层已经先动了。四张考卷已出,10 月 27 日财报周交卷,对账见。
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东山精密港交所公告,公司拟全球发售113783200股H股,香港发售股份11378400股H股,国际发售股份102404800股H股;最高发售价为每股93.80港元;预期股份将于2026年10月28日开始在香港联交所买卖。
AI基础设施进入重资产验证期:微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta四大巨头资本开支预计6000亿至7000亿美元,而AI年化收入合计仅约520亿美元,CoreWeave债券收益率逼近15%,市场定价焦点从营收增长转向资本回报。Anthropic以9650亿美元估值秘交S-1,施密特所持股权账面近96.5亿美元,但420亿美元净亏损、5180亿美元基础设施承诺与客户集中风险同步暴露。
当地时间10月19日,3M宣布与亚马逊全资子公司扩大战略商业合作,并向亚马逊另一家全资子公司发行认股权证,允许其在七年内以每股164.89美元的价格认购最多316.2万股3M普通股。根据协议,85%的认股权证股份将在亚马逊支付光连接及其他数据中心产品货款后逐步归属,累计付款达到60亿美元时全部归属;其余15%则取决于特定事件里程碑。(界面)
近期市场波动有所加大,保险资金权益配置的调整动向受到市场关注。据了解,险资确有阶段性调仓,但整体减持体量有限;自有保险资金大账户受仓位要求约束不能净减仓,委外专户则面临客户赎回和回撤约束。保险资金“长钱长投”的核心导向并未改变。与此同时,险资权益配置仍在升温。举牌节奏虽明显放缓,但通过IPO战略配售、私募股权基金等渠道,险资正以耐心长钱加码科技与新质生产力。展望四季度,多家险资机构倾向谨慎乐观,配置主线聚焦“高股息+科技成长”,并更强调业绩确定性与估值安全边际。(经济参考报)
据知情人士称,谷歌前首席执行官埃里克·施密特持有人工智能初创公司Anthropic约1%的股份;这意味着一旦Anthropic上市,他有望获得一笔巨额“意外之财”。消息人士称,施密特曾在Anthropic的A轮融资中投入了数千万美元。目前尚不清楚他此后是否出售过所持股份。Anthropic计划进行的首次公开募股(IPO)预计将为其早期投资者和员工带来可观的回报。上周有报道称,一些投资者在一次会议上讨论了约1.5万亿美元的估值,这一数字低于此前约2万亿美元的预期。(新浪财经)
万得数据显示,截至10月19日发稿,已有161家A股公司发布2026年前三季度业绩预告,其中134家公司业绩预喜(含121家预计净利润同比增长、13家预计净利润同比扭亏为盈)。储能、信息技术、医药等行业的多家业绩预喜公司公告显示,海外业务成为业绩增长的重要引擎。(证券时报)
巴克莱银行认为,CoreWeave所涉的债券风波,并不足以让人们对整个AI板块的健康状况感到恐慌。该行分析师在周一的一份报告中表示,即便这家“新一代云基础设施”提供商遭遇更多麻烦,投资者也无需担心会会爆发进一步的危机。上周,CoreWeave的部分债券收益率飙升至15%,导致该公司股价大跌。不过,巴克莱银行全球研究主管阿贾伊·拉贾迪亚克沙撰文指出,投资者无需担忧。他将此事与此前另一场曾引发市场恐慌的重大事件相提并论——那场事件最终被证明其长期影响是有限且可控的。(新浪财经)