Bitcoin fell 1.05 per cent to US$75,830.54 in 24 hours and underperformed a slightly weaker broader market. The move matters because it shows a trading environment tightly tied to macro risk. Bitcoin is 85 per cent correlated with the S&P 500. My view is that three forces reinforce each other. Institutional demand is retreating as spot ETF outflows continue. Macro uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections is suppressing risk appetite. A leveraged long unwind is amplifying the move. Until any of these pillars shifts, the path of least resistance remains lower.
The primary driver is clear. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$398.6 million in net outflows on November 2, following US$643.3 million on October 30. That two-day exodus exceeds US$1 billion and erodes Bitcoin’s most important source of buy-side support. BlackRock’s IBIT saw its largest single-day withdrawal since summer. That redemption signals that even the flagship institutional product cannot escape capital flight.
When the largest and most liquid ETF experiences withdrawals of that scale, persistent selling pressure hits the spot market and overwhelms retail demand. I see a crisis of conviction, not a temporary rotation. Institutions are reducing exposure ahead of a political event they cannot price with confidence. A reversal to net inflows would signal renewed institutional confidence and could stabilise prices.
Secondary factors compound the primary one. Broader risk-off sentiment has taken hold as US midterm election uncertainty collides with weakness in technology stocks. Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidations totalled US$34.64 million. That figure is modest in absolute terms but significant because it represents a flush of over-leveraged long positions that amplified the downward move. Funding rates ran too high, and long positioning became too crowded.
When the initial wave of selling hit, it triggered a cascade of forced exits. The largest cryptocurrency is trading like a risk asset, vulnerable to shifts in macro sentiment and internal leverage corrections. Stabilisation in equity markets, particularly the Nasdaq, and lower funding rates would mark progress. Neither has materialised.
Also Read: The crypto independence story is fragile: Bitcoin now moves on elections, oil and missiles
Geopolitical realities add another layer. The ongoing military conflict involving the US and Iran saw a flashpoint with localised, defensive US strikes on Qeshm Island. Parallel diplomatic engagement via Qatari mediators temporarily eases broader war fears and briefly drops crude oil prices. I read the situation as a manageable background risk rather than an immediate crisis. The diplomatic channel through Qatar gives traders a reason to avoid panic. The situation remains fluid. Any escalation that disrupts oil flows would likely trigger a sharper risk-off move across all asset classes, including Bitcoin. For now, traders treat the conflict as a secondary factor behind flows and election risk.
The midterm election impact is the most immediate macro catalyst. Wall Street is focused on counting the US midterm elections. Early indicators hinting at a potential Democratic sweep have injected volatility into equity futures and weighed on the US currency. Traders are weighing the possibility of increased regulatory oversight for high-growth technology and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
According to projections from the CNBC Election Desk and CBS News on November 4, 2026, Democrats surged past the 218-seat threshold needed to secure a House majority. Key Senate pickups in states like North Carolina and South Carolina have put the party on the verge of full congressional control. Market data from Kalshi prediction markets showed the probability of Democrats retaking the House spiking to over 99 per cent as counting progressed. A recent Bloomberg survey of institutional traders indicated that Wall Street saw a Republican Congress as the key catalyst to push Bitcoin past US$100,000 by the end of 2026. That sentiment is now unwinding in real time.
Also Read: If Binance says user funds are safe, why did Bitcoin still fall to US$77,037.20?
Crypto prices reacted immediately. As early results made a Democratic sweep highly likely, Bitcoin fell to US$75,600. Investors expect a Democratic-controlled Congress to bring stricter regulatory oversight, potentially stalling the pro-crypto legislative agenda championed by the Trump administration. This election-driven dip compounds a rough week for crypto, which includes market anxieties over a recent US$6.3 billion security breach at Binance. The Binance hack is not the primary cause of the decline, but it reinforces the narrative that crypto remains vulnerable to operational and security failures.
In my view, the election outcome matters less for what it does to Bitcoin in the near term and more for what it does to the legislative pipeline. A Democratic Congress could slow the pace of crypto-friendly regulation, which removes a structural tailwind that institutional investors had priced in. That shift in expectations matters because it removes a psychological anchor for bulls.
Technically, Bitcoin is testing a crucial support zone between US$76,400 and the 50-week moving average at US$75,602. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 33, a reading that signals fear but not capitulation. The immediate triggers are the US election results on November 3 and 4 and the October jobs report due November 6.
If Bitcoin holds above US$75,602, a relief bounce toward US$78,000 resistance is possible. A confirmed break below that level risks a swift decline toward the next major support near US$73,800. The bearish structure of lower highs since October remains intact. A daily close below US$75,600 would confirm breakdown momentum, while a reclaim of US$78,000 would suggest selling pressure is abating.
My point of view is that the market is in a defensive posture, awaiting macro clarity. The bearish pressure is real, and the path of least resistance remains down until ETF flows reverse or a key support level attracts strong bids. The decline is a confluence of institutional selling, macro uncertainty, and technical breakdown.
The election outcome and the jobs report will determine whether US$75,602 holds or breaks. I would watch the ETF flow data as closely as the price chart. If institutions return, the support level likely holds. If they continue to exit, the next stop is US$73,800. That plan keeps the focus on evidence rather than narrative.
—
Editor’s note: e27 aims to foster thought leadership by publishing views from the community. You can also share your perspective by submitting an article, video, podcast, or infographic.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of e27.
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The post US$1B ETF outflows, Democratic sweep highly likely, Iran war: Can Bitcoin hold US$75,600? appeared first on e27.
Bitcoin fell 1.05 per cent to US$75,830.54 in 24 hours and underperformed a slightly weaker broader market. The move matters because it shows a trading environment tightly tied to macro risk. Bitcoin is 85 per cent correlated with the S&P 500. My view is that three forces reinforce each other. Institutional demand is retreating as spot ETF outflows continue. Macro uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections is suppressing risk appetite. A leveraged long unwind is amplifying the move. Until any of these pillars shifts, the path of least resistance remains lower.
The primary driver is clear. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$398.6 million in net outflows on November 2, following US$643.3 million on October 30. That two-day exodus exceeds US$1 billion and erodes Bitcoin’s most important source of buy-side support. BlackRock’s IBIT saw its largest single-day withdrawal since summer. That redemption signals that even the flagship institutional product cannot escape capital flight.
When the largest and most liquid ETF experiences withdrawals of that scale, persistent selling pressure hits the spot market and overwhelms retail demand. I see a crisis of conviction, not a temporary rotation. Institutions are reducing exposure ahead of a political event they cannot price with confidence. A reversal to net inflows would signal renewed institutional confidence and could stabilise prices.
Secondary factors compound the primary one. Broader risk-off sentiment has taken hold as US midterm election uncertainty collides with weakness in technology stocks. Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidations totalled US$34.64 million. That figure is modest in absolute terms but significant because it represents a flush of over-leveraged long positions that amplified the downward move. Funding rates ran too high, and long positioning became too crowded.
When the initial wave of selling hit, it triggered a cascade of forced exits. The largest cryptocurrency is trading like a risk asset, vulnerable to shifts in macro sentiment and internal leverage corrections. Stabilisation in equity markets, particularly the Nasdaq, and lower funding rates would mark progress. Neither has materialised.
Also Read: The crypto independence story is fragile: Bitcoin now moves on elections, oil and missiles
Geopolitical realities add another layer. The ongoing military conflict involving the US and Iran saw a flashpoint with localised, defensive US strikes on Qeshm Island. Parallel diplomatic engagement via Qatari mediators temporarily eases broader war fears and briefly drops crude oil prices. I read the situation as a manageable background risk rather than an immediate crisis. The diplomatic channel through Qatar gives traders a reason to avoid panic. The situation remains fluid. Any escalation that disrupts oil flows would likely trigger a sharper risk-off move across all asset classes, including Bitcoin. For now, traders treat the conflict as a secondary factor behind flows and election risk.
The midterm election impact is the most immediate macro catalyst. Wall Street is focused on counting the US midterm elections. Early indicators hinting at a potential Democratic sweep have injected volatility into equity futures and weighed on the US currency. Traders are weighing the possibility of increased regulatory oversight for high-growth technology and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
According to projections from the CNBC Election Desk and CBS News on November 4, 2026, Democrats surged past the 218-seat threshold needed to secure a House majority. Key Senate pickups in states like North Carolina and South Carolina have put the party on the verge of full congressional control. Market data from Kalshi prediction markets showed the probability of Democrats retaking the House spiking to over 99 per cent as counting progressed. A recent Bloomberg survey of institutional traders indicated that Wall Street saw a Republican Congress as the key catalyst to push Bitcoin past US$100,000 by the end of 2026. That sentiment is now unwinding in real time.
Also Read: If Binance says user funds are safe, why did Bitcoin still fall to US$77,037.20?
Crypto prices reacted immediately. As early results made a Democratic sweep highly likely, Bitcoin fell to US$75,600. Investors expect a Democratic-controlled Congress to bring stricter regulatory oversight, potentially stalling the pro-crypto legislative agenda championed by the Trump administration. This election-driven dip compounds a rough week for crypto, which includes market anxieties over a recent US$6.3 billion security breach at Binance. The Binance hack is not the primary cause of the decline, but it reinforces the narrative that crypto remains vulnerable to operational and security failures.
In my view, the election outcome matters less for what it does to Bitcoin in the near term and more for what it does to the legislative pipeline. A Democratic Congress could slow the pace of crypto-friendly regulation, which removes a structural tailwind that institutional investors had priced in. That shift in expectations matters because it removes a psychological anchor for bulls.
Technically, Bitcoin is testing a crucial support zone between US$76,400 and the 50-week moving average at US$75,602. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 33, a reading that signals fear but not capitulation. The immediate triggers are the US election results on November 3 and 4 and the October jobs report due November 6.
If Bitcoin holds above US$75,602, a relief bounce toward US$78,000 resistance is possible. A confirmed break below that level risks a swift decline toward the next major support near US$73,800. The bearish structure of lower highs since October remains intact. A daily close below US$75,600 would confirm breakdown momentum, while a reclaim of US$78,000 would suggest selling pressure is abating.
My point of view is that the market is in a defensive posture, awaiting macro clarity. The bearish pressure is real, and the path of least resistance remains down until ETF flows reverse or a key support level attracts strong bids. The decline is a confluence of institutional selling, macro uncertainty, and technical breakdown.
The election outcome and the jobs report will determine whether US$75,602 holds or breaks. I would watch the ETF flow data as closely as the price chart. If institutions return, the support level likely holds. If they continue to exit, the next stop is US$73,800. That plan keeps the focus on evidence rather than narrative.
—
Editor’s note: e27 aims to foster thought leadership by publishing views from the community. You can also share your perspective by submitting an article, video, podcast, or infographic.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of e27.
Join us on WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, X, and LinkedIn to stay connected.
The post US$1B ETF outflows, Democratic sweep highly likely, Iran war: Can Bitcoin hold US$75,600? appeared first on e27.
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